This ring has zero divisors so the answer is different than over fields.
Let $H(a)-H(a')=c_1 a^{k-1}+c_2 a^{k-2}+\cdots+c_k,$ and let $j$ be the largest nonnegative integer such that $2^j$ divides $gcd(c_1,\ldots,c_k).$
Claim: Let $j$ be as above, then the polynomial $H(a)-H(a')$ can have $k\times 2^{j}$ roots, leading to a collision probability of $$\frac{k}{2^{n-j}}.$$
Proof: If the coefficients of the difference polynomial have a gcd divisible by $2^j$ then all values of the polynomial are in the subset (which is an ideal)
$$2^j \mathbb{Z}_{2^n}=\{2^j u: u \in \mathbb{Z}_{2^n}\}.$$ This means that the difference polynomial is of the form $2^j g(a)$ for some polynomial with gcd equal to 1. Therefore, it is enough for $g(a)$ to take values in $2^{n-j}\mathbb{Z}_{2^n}$ for $2^j g(a)$ to take on the value zero. This means that each zero of $g(a)$ is duplicated $2^j$ times to be a zero of the difference polynomial so the probability that the difference polynomial takes on the value zero is now
$$
\frac{k 2^j}{2^n}=\frac{k}{2^{n-j}}.
$$
Example from [Magma Calculator][1] of a degree $k=2$ polynomial, which has 2 roots and one where $j=2,$ which has $k 2^j=8$ roots.
code:
Z2to6:=IntegerRing(2^6); Z2to6;
R<a>:=PolynomialRing(Z2to6); R;
{* Z2to6!(a^2+63*a): a in Z2to6 *};
{* Z2to6!(4*(a^2+63*a)): a in Z2to6 *};}
output:
Univariate Polynomial Ring in a over IntegerRing(64)
{* 0^^2, 2^^2, 4^^2, 6^^2, 8^^2, 10^^2, 12^^2, 14^^2, 16^^2, 18^^2, 20^^2,
22^^2, 24^^2, 26^^2, 28^^2, 30^^2, 32^^2, 34^^2, 36^^2, 38^^2, 40^^2, 42^^2,
44^^2, 46^^2, 48^^2, 50^^2, 52^^2, 54^^2, 56^^2, 58^^2, 60^^2, 62^^2 *}`
{* 0^^8, 8^^8, 16^^8, 24^^8, 32^^8, 40^^8, 48^^8, 56^^8 *}```
The second polynomial $4(a^2+63a)$ has a gcd of 4 thus it has 8 roots not 2.
The magma list notation 0^^8 means the element 0 appears 8 times in the list.
[1]: http://magma.maths.usyd.edu.au/calc/